NEFuture : Scenarios for Rural Scotland (2003)

Based on our work at a national level in the UK and overseas, BusinessLab were commissioned by Scottish Enterprise to run a scenario exercise for Aberdeenshire, the rural hinterland of Aberdeen, Europe's offshore energy capital.

With its primary industries involving agriculture, fishing, beef and paper manufacturing, the beautiful 'Shire' was often seen as the poor cousin of the city, which for 30 years has been one of the key economic drivers of Scotland and the UK.

This project sought to explore what may happen, and to improve understanding of the factors likely to shape the future of north east Scotland over the next 10 to 15 years. Specifically the project aimed to provide a vehicle for deepening the understanding of the complex issues involved in north east Scotland's future.

When the British Association met in Aberdeen in 1963 to consider the north east economy it concluded that unless some fundamental change happened or unless a major new industry was created in the area, the population would continue to age as young people migrated south in search of opportunities. One year later came the Continental Shelf Act and the oil and gas industry arrived in the Aberdeen area.

Since the early 1970s the economy of north east Scotland has enjoyed a level of prosperity surpassed by few other parts of the UK.

But in the early 2000s the international oil and gas industry was undergoing radical change and the relatively high cost of north sea development was casting doubt over Aberdeen’s long term future as a major centre for energy related employment.

BusinessLab identified a need to focus beyond the prevailing uncertainties and understand how north east Scotland could adapt, not only to political change but to other more powerful economic social and environmental forces shaping its future.